@Watchman
did you see the last month’s Establishment Survey? This data metric helps determine the LFP-
labor force participation rate which has declined for two months in a row- it makes no since according to the BLS jobs data released last week.
Today, the LFP stands at 61.1%, factor in the Household Survey data from July 12 2022, there is a 1.8 million disparity in civilian labor force.
the civilian labor force does NOT count retirees, students of working age, those on disability, those otherwise ineligible to work, anyone on unemployment insurance benefits, those who took a lateral or downward job move, those who moved out of the U.S., and it doesn’t count anyone holding down two or more jobs. Who’s left? Those in prison and dead people. so according to the data, 1.8 million people either went to prison or died, or they just dropped out of the labor force for no apparent reason in the prime of their working lives.
Things are certainly are NOT going along business as usual. 1.8 million is a huge gap- something isn’t right in BLS statistic-land.
It’s starting to show up in the service sector: transportation, esp air travel, pilot shortage, health care worker shortage, retail worker shortage, and it showing up in other sectors.